Discrepancies between maturity offset predictions and menarche in young female athletes

Growth and maturation are critical for interpreting the development and performance of young athletes. Selection pressures in youth sport vary by discipline: team sports often favor early maturers, while aesthetic and weight-sensitive sports, such as gymnastics, tend to favor late-maturing athletes—especially among girls. These patterns can influence which athletes are identified and retained during adolescence. Somatic indicators, particularly estimates of age at peak height velocity (PHV), are commonly used to assess maturity status. However, these models have known limitations, especially for early and late maturers. In girls, menarche offers an additional biological marker for sexual maturation. This study examined the agreement between PHV-based classifications and menarcheal status in 178 Brazilian female athletes (basketball: n <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> </mml:math> 89; gymnastics: n <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> </mml:math> 25; volleyball: n <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> </mml:math> 64), aged 10.6 to 16.2 years. Athletes were grouped as early, on-time, or late maturers. Agreement between classification methods was analyzed using multinomial logistic regressions, adjusting for ethnic variation. Results revealed a weak correlation between age at PHV and age at menarche [r <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> </mml:math> 0.24; 68% CI: 0.16 to 0.31], with better classification accuracy for on-time maturers. Maturity offset predictions correctly classified only 33.2% of players into early, on-time, or late maturation categories based on their menarcheal status. Including ethnicity did not meaningfully alter the findings.These results highlight limitations of PHV-based models, particularly for early and late-maturing girls. Sport-specific patterns of selection—such as the preference for later maturation in gymnastics—underscore the need for caution when applying these models in youth sport contexts.