Causal effect analysis of serving performance using double machine learning

Serving performance is widely recognized as a critical factor influencing match outcomes in professional tennis. To evaluate its contribution to winning probability, this study analyzes ATP men's singles matches (2013-2024) and estimates the causal effects of four serve-related indicators: ace rate, first serve win rate, first serve in rate, and double fault rate.Results indicate that the ace rate shows a modest positive causal association rather than a uniformly negative one, while first serve win rate and first serve in rate exhibit context-dependent but statistically small impacts, and the double fault rate effects remain limited.These effects, although moderate in magnitude, remain statistically robust across multiple model specifications.The findings highlight the importance of adapting serve strategies across surfaces, ranking groups, and tournament levels.This study focuses exclusively on ATP men's singles data, and future research should validate these causal relationships in WTA and mixed competitions to enhance generalizability.