Predictors of Sustainability of New Energy Vehicle Industry in China

This study examines the factors influencing the sustainability of China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry within the broader context of industrial upgrading and green transformation. It specifically examines how government subsidies, infrastructure investment, and R&D expenditures impact financial and non-financial sustainability indicators, including profitability, operational efficiency, and ESG performance. A descriptive–correlational design was employed, utilizing panel data from 277 listed NEV enterprises in China, spanning the period from 2015 to 2024. Secondary data were retrieved from the iFinD database and analyzed using SPSS through correlation and multiple regression analyses. Sustainability was measured in terms of net profit margin, return on assets (ROA), return on investment (ROI), ESG score, and sustainable growth rate. Results revealed that infrastructure investment exhibits a statistically significant negative relationship with financial sustainability indicators, indicating an "investment efficiency paradox" where high capital intensity constrains short-term profitability. Government subsidies and R&D expenditures had no significant influence on corporate sustainability, suggesting diminishing marginal returns to subsidies and delayed payoffs from innovation investment. The findings further highlight structural imbalances within the NEV ecosystem, where midstream enterprises dominate but long-term sustainability remains constrained by innovation diversity and policy–enterprise misalignment. Policymakers should transition from scale-driven to quality-oriented support mechanisms by optimizing subsidies, investing in smart infrastructure, and incentivizing core technology R&D. Enterprises must integrate ESG principles and innovation efficiency to achieve balanced profitability and sustainability. This study provides empirical evidence on the interaction between policy, investment behavior, and sustainability in China's NEV industry, advancing theoretical and practical understanding of green industrial transformation and sustainable supply chain resilience.