Estimation of the navigation watch system trouble-free operation probability under different time distribution laws restoring the self-monitoring subsystem

With the constant aging of marine vessels, it is becoming increasingly difficult to ensure their navigational safety. Despite the efforts being made, the human factor remains the main cause of accidents in marine and river waters. The necessity of considering the process of keeping a running watch as a system including appropriate subsystems is substantiated. The system of navigation watchkeeping, which includes a subsystem of self-control of the human factor, is being investigated. A model of the information transformation system in ship safety management has been compiled, including a subsystem of self-monitoring. It is noted that the process of information transformation in ship condition management with self-monitoring is capable of ensuring an effective state of safety of the ship, crew and cargo. The assumption is introduced that the recovery time of the subsystem of self-control of the human factor is subject to a degenerate distribution law with a certain mathematical expectation, which will significantly simplify the calculation formulas and create convenient methods for assessing and ensuring reliability (safety) in the navigation watch system. The probability of trouble-free operation of the watchkeeping system is investigated in the case of a degenerate law of the recovery time distribution of the subsystem of self-control of the human factor and in the case when the law of the recovery time distribution is different from the degenerate one. The probability of error-free transformation of information, taking into account self-control, is estimated. The maximum error value in calculating the probability of trouble-free operation of the information conversion system in control is calculated when replacing any law of the distribution of the recovery time of self-control with a degenerate distribution law. An experimental assessment was made of the probability of reliable operation of the navigation watch system under the exponential law of the recovery time distribution of the self-monitoring subsystem.