Applying Classical Migration Theories to Forced Displacement: The Case of Displaced Ukrainians in Berlin, Warsaw, and Budapest

Abstract This study examines the decision to flee and the destination preferences of displaced Ukrainians who sought refuge in Berlin, Warsaw, and Budapest following the 2022 full-scale Russian invasion. Drawing on 255 semi-structured interviews and employing an abductive analytical approach, the analysis integrates insights from neoclassical economics of migration, the new economics of migration, and network theory. The findings highlight the importance of perceived agency at the onset of displacement in shaping the types of push and pull drivers that migrants considered relevant. Additionally, the study shows that social contacts influencing the decision to flee differ from those shaping destination preferences: The former are typically strong ties (e.g., close family), while the latter often involve weaker ties (e.g., acquaintances or volunteers). The article concludes by demonstrating the continued relevance and adaptability of classical migration theories for understanding forced migration dynamics.