A Multi-Agent Simulation-Based Decision Support Tool for Sustainable Tourism Land Use Planning in Rural China

The sustainable development of Rural Summer Health Tourism for the Urban Elderly (RSHTUE) is fundamentally tied to the rational utilization of rural land. Land use is a dynamic process involving multiple stakeholders; it requires predictive modeling of its evolution to ensure long-term sustainability. This study integrates key factors under rigid boundary constraints to establish decision-making rules for government, villager, and tourist agents. Taking Zhongyuan Township as a research site, we constructed a multi-agent simulation model by integrating environmental data processed in ArcGIS with decision-making rules encoded in NetLogo. Through scenario analysis, we simulate the evolution of tourism land use for 2028 and 2033 under three distinct development scenarios: tourism-led, ecological protection, and rural belt joint. The results demonstrate that each scenario leads to markedly different spatial patterns. The model developed in this study can directly simulate land use in RSHTUE destination villages while also being applicable to other types of rural tourism by adjusting relevant parameters. The model serves as a “policy laboratory” to simulate and compare the effects of different policy scenarios, thereby enabling the generation of land use strategies that balance multi-stakeholder sustainable development and providing an empirical basis for policy formulation and optimization.