Research on the impact of climate change on food production resilience in China

Climate polarization threatens the food production stabilization and economic development worldwide. As a major agricultural producer, China faces increasing risks to its food security. This study examines the effects of accumulated temperature and precipitation anomaly level on food production resilience, with crop diversity potentially playing a moderating role. To this end, it uses fixed-effects and moderating-effects models based on official statistics from 31 Chinese administrative regions (2010-2022). First, China's overall resilience in food production has shown an upward trend, fluctuating from 0.376 in 2010 to 0.435 in 2022. Second, accumulated temperature has a suppressing effect on food production resilience at the 5% significance level, while precipitation anomalies have a similar effect at the 10% significance level. This inhibitory effect is most pronounced in major food-producing areas, while it is less severe in major food-consuming areas and in regions with production-consumption balanced areas. Third, crop diversity has an important moderating role, mitigating the negative impact of precipitation anomalies on food production resilience, statistically significant at 10% level; conversely, its role in moderating accumulated temperature is insignificant. To cope with climate shocks and safeguard food production security, the study proposes policy recommendations in three areas: building a climate-smart agricultural system, optimizing the application of crop diversity, and implementing targeted zoning strategies.