The Spatiotemporal Heterogeneities of Deindustrialization in Mainland China

As an emerging economic phenomenon, deindustrialization has begun to be valued. Rapid economy and industrial upgrading have resulted in various deindustrialization across mainland China’s provinces, especially premature deindustrialization. In order to scientifically measure deindustrialization with the new criteria, we investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneities of deindustrialization in mainland China during 2008–2050 using the fixed-effects regression model, Geodetector, and the ARIMA time trend model. Premature deindustrialization appeared in Beijing and Hainan, while it does not occur in China’s most eastern and central provinces, with a pronounced trend toward output-based deindustrialization. The scale of manufacturing employment is the primary determinant of deindustrialization, while the share of tertiary industry value added in GDP is the key driver of output-based deindustrialization. Interaction analysis reveals that employment-based deindustrialization is mainly affected by the industrial labor force, while output-based deindustrialization is intensified through interactive effects such as enterprise agglomeration. By 2050, deindustrialization will appear in 6 of China’s provinces, while premature deindustrialization will appear in 14 provinces. The Bohai Rim and Southwest provinces will be the core areas of China’s premature deindustrialization. To mitigate the adverse effects of premature deindustrialization, industrial upgrading by strengthening policy, increasing investment in R&D innovation, and optimizing the business environment should be carried out in some designated provinces.