Assessment of the impact of environmental factors on the development of heavy industry in the Russian Federation

This article focuses on assessing the impact of the environmental factor on the development of heavy industry sectors in the Russian Federation in the context of the current sustainable development agenda and external economic constraints. It examines the contradictions between the goal of accelerated industrial growth, the need to ensure technological and budgetary sovereignty, and the requirement to reduce anthropogenic impact. The analysis covers manufacturing and mining industries, their contribution to the economy and budget, and the key environmental effects of industrial expansion. It also examines the regulatory framework for environmental policy, the dynamics of environmental and climate protection costs, the role of ESG approaches (sustainable development principles), and innovation. The study reveals systemic relationships between industrial indices, environmental costs, and strategic goals for sustainable development. The study uses structural-dynamic and comparative analysis of official statistics (Rosstat), legal and institutional analysis of environmental policy, and content analysis of scientific sources on ESG and innovation to interpret causal relationships and assess trends. The scientific novelty lies in the comprehensive linking of the dynamics of heavy industry indices with the budgetary dependence on resource revenues and the trajectory of environmental costs, including the climate agenda and R&D. It is shown that the growth of output is accompanied by a faster increase in current environmental protection costs, while the funding for environmental R&D is decreasing, which limits the potential for technological cost reduction. The "sustainability gap" has been identified: the expansion of production without adequate innovation support increases the environmental and fiscal burden on environmental measures. The paper concludes that it is advisable to shift the focus to investments in environmental R&D, the modernization of wastewater treatment facilities and best available technologies, ESG standards and principles, and the alignment of development programs with environmental targets and performance metrics.