Solo demand, rising rents: how young singles shape urban housing costs

Purpose This study investigates how the concentration of young single-person households (aged 24–35 years) influences small-unit rental prices in Istanbul’s fragmented housing market. Amid rapid demographic shifts and urban restructuring, this paper aims to provide robust causal evidence on the demand-side pressures driven by young singles in shaping rental dynamics, particularly in the increasingly competitive one-bedroom apartment segment. Design/methodology/approach Using a novel cross-sectional data set covering 605 neighborhoods in Istanbul, this study applies a two-stage least squares instrumental variable strategy to address endogeneity, particularly simultaneity bias. The spatially lagged share of young singles is used as an instrument. The model controls for a rich set of neighborhood-level variables, including accessibility, amenities, income, education, population structure and housing stock age. Findings A one-percentage-point increase in the share of young single-person households leads to a 4.2% increase in average rents for one-bedroom apartments. These effects are more pronounced in neighborhoods near employment centers, with strong transit access and lifestyle amenities. The results of this study emphasize that demographic clustering at the micro scale drives localized price inflation in the rental market and disproportionately burdens high-demand segments. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first to causally link neighborhood-level solo living patterns to rental inflation in emerging urban contexts. This study advances housing scholarship by segmenting the market by unit size and household structure, while offering policy-relevant insights for managing affordability. The findings of this study support a targeted small-unit housing strategy that responds to evolving demographic realities in dense metropolitan regions.