Why should we bother about urban risk reduction? ERS instrument and a methodology to assess its impact on urban functionality

Purpose The traditional Italian approach to seismic risk management has focused more on post-disaster recovery than proactive urban prevention policies. This has resulted in significant costs and has profoundly affected local communities and urban functionality. This paper aims to contribute to the debate on seismic prevention strategies by introducing a new planning tool for early recovery − the Early Recovery System (ERS) − along with a methodology for assessing its impact on post-earthquake urban functionality. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors introduced the ERS, a prevention instrument designed to identify a proto-system of essential urban elements suitable for seismic retrofitting − such as emergency facilities, healthcare centers, schools, areas for temporary housing and road networks − that represent the minimum core to be preserved after an earthquake to reduce urban vulnerability and facilitate recovery to begin. By calculating 18 indicators over various time intervals and across different ERS configurations, the authors generated recovery curves that illustrate urban functionality loss and recovery trajectories. These curves enable us to assess and identify the optimal ERS configuration for effective prevention strategies. Findings Applying this methodology in a counterfactual case study of L’Aquila following the 2009 earthquake demonstrates that the proposed variables and resulting recovery curves realistically reflect L’Aquila’s actual recovery trajectory. These results support the potential for abstracting the methodology and applying it within a more complex framework for risk scenario simulation. Originality/value The ERS may represent a significant step forward in developing an urban prevention tool for early recovery, one that could assist decision-makers in planning interventions and setting priorities to enhance territorial safety and resilience in earthquake-prone regions.