What Dominates Land Use Conflicts Across Different Urban Expansion Patterns?—Evidence From the Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, China

ABSTRACT In the context of accelerated urbanization, elucidating the relationship between urban expansion and land use conflicts (LUCs), and understanding the impact of socio‐natural factors on LUCs, is imperative for sustainable regional development. However, the differential impact of urban expansion patterns (UEPs) on the variation of LUCs and the dominant drivers of this variation, have not been fully explored, hampering the formulation of sustainable urban development plans. To address these gaps, we analyzed the differential impact of three UEPs (edge expansion, infilling expansion and outlying expansion) on LUCs in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA). Subsequently, we employed XGBoost‐SHAP and PLS‐SEM models to explore the dominant factors and driving mechanisms of LUCs under different UEPs from 2000 to 2020, thereby formulating targeted urban development strategies. Key findings included: (1) LUCs intensity has fluctuated downward over the past two decades, exhibiting a spatial evolution characterized by alternating dominance of “agglomeration‐dispersion” patterns. (2) Edge expansion was the dominant pattern triggering LUCs, exhibiting significantly greater scale and intensity than outlying and infilling expansion. (3) These differences were primarily driven by changes in Night‐time lights, whose explanatory power varied across different UEPs. (4) Urbanization factors exerted the strongest positive influence, climate impacts varied depending on UEPs, and geographic environment negatively impacted LUCs. These findings indicated that differentiated spatial optimization strategies should be adopted for different UEPs to achieve sustainable land use. This study provides theoretical and practical references for promoting harmonious human‐land relations in rapidly urbanizing regions.