Uncertainty, resilience, and fertility: Perceived capacity to overcome loss of employment and fertility intentions in Sweden, 2021

BACKGROUNDFertility declines in Western countries following the Great Recession have spurred interest in the role of subjective economic uncertainty for fertility.While previous research has largely focused on perceived employment stability, recent studies suggest resilience to employment loss may be a more critical factor in shaping fertility intentions. OBJECTIVEThe study examines the relationship between perceived resilience and fertility intentions among childless couples in Sweden and how this association differs across sociodemographic factors, perceptions of employment stability, and risk attitudes. METHODSUsing data from the 2021 Swedish Generations and Gender Survey, logistic regression models assess the association between perceived resilience -measured as the perceived likelihood of finding equivalent employment after job loss -and fertility intentions. RESULTSUncertainty regarding resilience is linked to lower fertility intentions for men, with no clear association observed for women.This association is particularly notable among foreign-born individuals.While a clear relationship between low resilience and fertility intentions was not found across the entire sample, such links appear more evident among economically vulnerable groups. CONCLUSIONSThe findings suggest that uncertainty about one's resilience can inhibit fertility planning, particularly among certain subgroups.This indicates that a fundamentally unpredictable future may be more disruptive to intentions than a future perceived as risky but knowable -at least in the context of employment resilience.