Graduating from poverty together? Evaluating the sustainability of the collective‐level impacts of a basic income experiment in rural Uganda

Abstract It is often assumed that the effects of cash transfer programs (CTs) could only be limited to temporary monetary poverty alleviation and consumption smoothing. According to theoretical discussions, such programs would not bear the potential to yield long‐lasting and transformative effects in recipient communities. However, the available (even if scarce) post‐program evidence seems to actually suggest that positive CT repercussions on a variety of outcomes can actually persist after the cessation of support. The existing proofs, however, mainly focus on the analysis of effects at the individual and household levels, while collective‐level impacts have been largely overlooked. In this context, this paper resorts to a quasi‐experimental matching approach to explore the sustainability (i.e., persistence after the end of exposure) of the impacts on collective‐level variables—conceptualized as social capital, agency, and collective action—of a universal unconditional (as such, a basic income experiment) CT implemented in rural Uganda. The main findings relate to sustained or long‐term impacts on social networks, life satisfaction, crime, and (both individual and collective) demand for services. The observed effects on cognitive social capital could be interpreted as a persisting increase in support for universal programs, in contrast to targeted ones. These results highlight the potential for short‐term universal CTs to generate lasting shifts in relational and collective dynamics.