Assessing the efficacy of river-based ocean alkalinity enhancement for carbon sequestration under high emission pathways

Abstract. Among various proposed geoengineering methods, ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) stands out as a unique solution. By mimicking natural weathering processes, OAE can simultaneously enhance oceanic carbon uptake and mitigate ocean acidification. However, the full efficacy and potential side effects of OAE remain to be fully understood. To evaluate the efficacy of OAE through natural pathways via rivers, we applied a 5-fold alkalinity flux increase (OWE5) at the mouths of global rivers from 2020 to 2100 in a fully coupled Earth System Model under a high-emission scenario (SSP585). In additional sensitivity tests, the flux was increased to 7.5- (OWE75), 10-fold (OWE10), or restored to the control level (OWE0) in 2050. Compared to the control run, global mean surface pH increased by 0.02, 0.03, 0.04, and 0.006; the oceanic inventory of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) increased by 5.39, 7.41, 9.50, and 2.06 Pmol; and atmospheric CO2 concentration decreased by 29, 40, 51, and 11 ppmv under OWE5, OWE75, OWE10, and OWE0, respectively, by the end of the century. The most significant responses to OAE were observed in coastal regions, as well as in the Indian and North Atlantic Oceans. Our simulations demonstrate that OAE via rivers is an effective and practical method, however, even a tenfold increase in alkalinity flux is insufficient to reverse the trends of ocean acidification or rising atmospheric CO2 levels under a high-emission scenario. This underscores the urgent need for complementary technological innovations and aggressive emission reduction strategies to curb CO2 emissions.