Global Burden and Future Projections of Urological Cancers: A Comprehensive Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

ABSTRACT Urological cancers represent a significant and growing global health challenge. This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the global burden, trends, and inequalities of prostate, bladder, and kidney cancers from 1990 to 2021, and to project their future burden to 2050. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs). We employed joinpoint regression to analyze temporal trends, frontier analysis to evaluate healthcare efficiency, and Bayesian age‐period‐cohort models to project future burden. Risk factor attributions were also quantified. In 2021, prostate cancer demonstrated the highest age‐standardized rates across all metrics. From 1990 to 2021, age‐standardized mortality and DALY rates declined for all three cancers. The burden was disproportionately higher among males and older populations, with smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body‐mass index identified as leading risk factors. Projections to 2050 indicate a continued decline in all age‐standardized rates globally. Despite favorable trends in standardized rates, persistent sex disparities, growing absolute case numbers due to population aging, and the influence of modifiable risk factors necessitate targeted public health interventions and strategic healthcare planning.