Spatial and dynamic effects of urban resilience on carbon emission intensity in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

Scientifically diagnosing the multi-dimensional adaptive relationship between urban resilience and carbon emission intensity is a key link in promoting high-quality regional development and contributing to the construction of ecological civilization. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics between urban resilience and carbon emission intensity in 26 cities within the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2022. By employing a spatial Durbin model (SDM) and a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model, the analysis captures both spatial spillovers and temporal interactions. The regression results show that urban resilience has a significant negative effect on carbon emission intensity, with a coefficient of − 2.922 at the 1% significance level. Both the direct effect (− 2.475) and indirect effect (− 6.882) are significantly negative, suggesting that enhanced urban resilience reduces local emissions and generates positive spatial spillover effects that promote emission reductions in neighboring cities. Additionally, both variables exhibit strong spatial autocorrelation and clustering characteristics, although the degree of clustering shows a slight decline over time, with global Moran's I index for urban resilience and carbon emission intensity decreasing by approximately 18.3% and 31.8%, respectively, from 2010 to 2022. PVAR results identify a bidirectional, time-lagged relationship: while carbon emissions exert a more immediate influence on resilience, the long-term effect of resilience on emission reduction becomes increasingly prominent. These findings underscore the critical role of resilience-oriented urban strategies in advancing regional low-carbon transformation and sustainable urban development.