Study on the Correlation Between Transportation Development and Urban Expansion in China from the Perspective of Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity

With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the spatiotemporal effects of transportation development have profoundly influenced urban expansion, potentially posing challenges to the sustainable development of urban economic, social, and ecological systems. Existing research has primarily focused on the relationship between transportation systems and urban expansion at the city, urban agglomeration, and regional levels, but studies from a broader spatial scale and spatiotemporal heterogeneity perspective remain relatively scarce. This study examines 364 cities in China, using the proportion of urban construction land area and nighttime light data to characterize urban expansion levels. The geographically weighted regression model is employed to analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the correlation between transportation development and urban expansion, while the spatial Durbin model is used to explore spatial spillover effects. The results reveal significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the relationship between transportation development and urban expansion. From 2010 to 2020, the spatial heterogeneity of the correlation between transportation development and the Percentage of Construction Land Area increased, while the spatial heterogeneity of its correlation with Nighttime Lights decreased. Among the ten transportation development indicators, National Road Density and Density of Street Light showed the most significant correlations with urban expansion. Additionally, some transportation development indicators exhibited notable spatial spillover effects on urban expansion, with Provincial Road Density and Density of Road with Lights having the most prominent impacts. This study provides scientific evidence for planners and policymakers to formulate more precise urban development strategies and promote high-quality, sustainable urban development.