Exploring the Decoupling of Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth and Its Influencing Factors: A Comparative Study of the EU and BRICS Countries

Achieving decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions is imperative for global sustainable development. This study provides a comparative analysis of this decoupling process in the European Union (EU) and BRICS countries from 1996 to 2023, employing the Tapio decoupling model and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis. Our findings reveal a stark contrast: the EU has achieved an average annual carbon emission growth rate of −1%, predominantly characterized by strong decoupling, whereas the BRICS nations exhibit an average growth rate of 6.26%, mainly in a state of weak decoupling. The LMDI results indicate that the intensity effect is the primary driver of carbon reduction in the EU, while the income effect is the most significant factor promoting emissions growth in the BRICS bloc. A novel finding is the identification of a near-symmetrical relationship between the energy transition effect and the fossil energy structure effect in the cumulative decomposition charts, offering a new perspective for evaluating energy system changes. The study concludes that while the EU demonstrates a more advanced decoupling pathway, significant internal disparities persist. For BRICS countries, mitigating the pressure from economic and population growth through industrial upgrading, differentiated energy policies, and enhanced renewable infrastructure is crucial. These insights provide valuable policy implications for both developed and developing economies in navigating their low-carbon transitions.