TESE-Informed Evolution Pathways for Photovoltaic Systems: Bridging Technology Trajectories and Market Needs

Challenges related to energy security require support for investments in renewable energy sources. One of the most dynamically developing technologies in this area is photovoltaics. The literature provides numerous publications indicating PV development directions; however, strategic development planning remains fragmented between purely technological solutions and market-economic analyses. Systematic integration of both perspectives with customer needs is lacking. This study fills this gap: applying the Trends of Engineering System Evolution (TESE) methodology enables identification of PV system development trends with particular attention to PV user needs and consideration of market-economic and technological conditions. The TESE framework was used to identify the Main Parameter of Value (MPV), which indicates which technology features are important to consumers. Two key MPVs were identified: “profitability” and “independence.” These reflect the fundamental decision criteria of customers in residential and commercial segments. The analysis revealed that profitability is between stages 2 and 3 of the technology S-curve, while independence is at stage 2. As areas worth developing in terms of the indicated MPVs, the authors proposed: increasing panel efficiency, building integrated platforms containing PV, batteries, and an efficient management system (PV + ESS + EMS), and creating PV microgrids with energy storage. The integration of photovoltaic systems with energy storage solutions proved to be the most important strategic direction, simultaneously addressing both MPVs and enabling advanced energy management capabilities. The study provides manufacturers and technology developers with evidence-based recommendations concerning resource allocation in photovoltaic innovation. It combines the technology development approach and market demand through systematically verified evolutionary patterns. This methodology offers a repeatable framework for strategic technology planning in renewable energy sectors.