Willingness to Pay for Geothermal Power: A Contingent Valuation Study in Taiwan

Geothermal energy provides a stable baseload renewable source that is less affected by weather variability compared with solar and wind power, and is therefore increasingly considered in national energy transition and net-zero strategies. Yet its environmental externalities and associated social benefits are not fully priced in existing electricity markets, raising the question of how much the public is willing to pay for geothermal-based generation. This study applies non-market valuation theory to estimate citizens’ additional annual electricity payment required to replace coal-fired generation with geothermal energy. A contingent valuation method (CVM) survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews, employing a closed-ended single-bounded dichotomous choice format with incentive compatibility. Stratified random sampling yielded 678 valid observations. The estimated mean willingness to pay (WTP) per person per year is USD 56.18 (NTD 1792) under the Probit model and USD 52.16 (NTD 1663) under the Logit model, representing approximately 0.2–0.3% of average annual income and 16–20% of the average annual electricity bill. Aggregated to the population level, total annual WTP amounts to USD 688 million (NTD 21,934 billion; Probit) and USD 638 million (NTD 20,355 billion; Logit). These estimates correspond to support for developing approximately 108–335 MW of geothermal capacity, sufficient to supply around 202,000–624,000 four-person households. The findings indicate substantial public support for geothermal power as part of Taiwan’s renewable energy transition, and provide empirical evidence relevant to regions with comparable geothermal potential.