Why does calorie information produce mixed evidence for its effect on food choices?

We implement a framed field experiment to understand and rationalize previous contradictory calorie labeling findings showing mostly decreasing or null effects, but also some evidence of increasing calorie intake. Our study suggests that the numeric value of calorie information alone is not sufficient to explain the impact of information on food choice, but it is the gap between an individual calorie reference point expectation and the realized actual amount that influences food choices. We manipulate this gap in a carefully controlled experiment creating meals that look nearly identical but substantially differ in their calorie content. There is a sharp contrast in the literature with a large body of research only examining the effect of providing the calorie content for a meal while ignoring individual consumers' expectations. Understanding the underlying mechanism driving calorie information response is crucial for designing and implementing effective calorie interventions and policies.