What Drives Undocumented Immigration? Policy, Economic, and Social Factors in the US and Mexico

Abstract The discourse on undocumented immigration to the United States often centers on place-based policies, such as those that create “sanctuary” on the one hand, or that promote "self-deportation" on the other. How much do these policies actually affect migration patterns? This paper uses administrative data on likely undocumented Mexican immigrants to estimate the impact of state-level immigration policy on location decisions and compare this to the role of labor market characteristics and violence. Using a fixed effects model that accounts for Mexican state to US state networks, I do not find evidence that state-level policy drives immigration patterns and instead labor market conditions and violent crime explain Mexican migration across US states.