Comparative effectiveness analysis of univariate time-series forecasting models for disease mortality rates in the global burden of disease database: a case study of global hypertensive heart disease among women of childbearing age

This study provided the first systematic comparison of univariate forecasting models for HHD mortality in WCBA using GBD data. A key finding was that both LSTM and Prophet performed exceptionally well statistically, LSTM achieves superior predictive capability via its gated mechanisms and state memory, while Prophet enhances interpretability through its additive model structure. This study therefore provides practical guidance for health authorities to select appropriate models based on actual needs to support improved resource planning for HHD.