Multi-Scenario Investment Optimization in Pumped Storage Hydropower Using Enhanced Benders Decomposition and Isolation Forest

Under the global imperative for climate action and sustainable development, accelerating the transition towards high-penetration renewable energy systems remains a universal priority, central to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, the inherent uncertainty and volatility of renewables such as wind and solar PV pose fundamental challenges to power system stability and flexibility worldwide. These challenges, if unaddressed, could significantly hinder the reliable and sustainable integration of clean energy on a global scale. While pumped storage hydropower (PSH) represents a mature, large-scale solution for enhancing system regulation capabilities, existing planning methodologies frequently suffer from critical limitations. These included oversimplified scenario representations—particularly the inadequate consideration of escalating extreme weather events under climate change—and computational inefficiencies in solving large-scale stochastic optimization models. These shortcomings ultimately constrained the practical value of such approaches for advancing sustainable energy planning and building climate-resilient power infrastructures globally. To address these issues, this paper proposed a bi-level stochastic planning method integrating scenario optimization and improved Benders decomposition. Specifically, an integrated framework combining affinity propagation clustering and isolation forest algorithms was developed to generate a comprehensive scenario set that covered both typical and anomalous operating days, thereby capturing a wider range of system uncertainties. A two-layer stochastic optimization model was established, aiming to minimize total investment and operational costs while ensuring system reliability and renewable integration. The upper layer determined PSH capacity, while the lower layer simulated multi-scenario system operations. To efficiently solve the model, the Benders decomposition algorithm was enhanced through the introduction of a heuristic feasible cut generation mechanism, which strengthened subproblem feasibility and accelerated convergence. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved a 96.7% annual renewable energy integration rate and completely avoided load shedding events with minimal investment cost, verifying its effectiveness, economic efficiency, and enhanced adaptability to diverse operational scenarios.