Future Tibetan grasslands will decrease: A novel insight from constructive grass species

Tibet's grasslands, the region's dominant ecosystem, are vital for pastoral livelihoods and wildlife habitats. However, their future distribution under combined climate change and anthropogenic pressures remains poorly understood. This study presents an innovative species-level modeling framework to project Tibetan grassland dynamics through the simulated future spatial distribution of 44 constructive grass species. Our results show a net decline of 4.6% in grassland area by 2060, characterized by a 6.7% reduction in productive grasslands yet a 6.6% expansion of wildlife-habitat grasslands. Projected losses are greater under 2°C/century or 5°C/century warming than under intermediate warming trajectories (3°C-4.1°C/century). These findings suggest climate change will challenge pastoral productivity while benefiting Tibetan wildlife, offering key insights for navigating the complex trade-off between sustaining pastoralism and preserving biodiversity in high-altitude grassland ecosystems.