Stochastic Modeling of Nonlinear Ellipsoidal Debris Dispersion in Suborbital Breakup Events

A predictive model for debris dispersion from suborbital vehicle breakups is developed in this study through the novel integration of the Spacecraft Collision Breakup Model (SCBM) with minimum-volume enclosing ellipsoid (MVEE) theory. The key innovation lies in the development of a computationally efficient algorithmic framework that captures nonlinear fragment dynamics (0.03 to $$-$$0.99m) under complex aerodynamic and atmospheric interactions, incorporating size-dependent drag and stochastic perturbations. Distinct behavioral regimes are identified: smaller fragments (0.03 to $$-$$0.1m) exhibit prolonged atmospheric residence, while larger fragments (0.1 to $$-$$0.99m) display rapid spatial divergence due to initial separation energies. Compared to conventional Monte Carlo or pure probabilistic approaches, the proposed hybrid model reduces collision probability errors by 32–41%, and establishes quantitative relationships between fragment size, dispersion patterns, and dynamically evolving risk fields. These advances provide critical insights into high-altitude breakup phenomena, significantly improving risk assessment capabilities for suborbital operations. The methodology is also applicable to re-entry analysis and space debris modeling, contributing to the understanding of nonlinear astrodynamical systems with explicit mathematical-computational linkages.