Dynamics of Cycling Adoption: A Model with Social Influence

To address the consequences of climate change, policies promoting green transportation, particularly cycling, are gaining importance. To address this need, this paper introduces a novel compartmental model to analyze the dynamics of bicycle adoption. We demonstrate the existence and global asymptotic stability of a single equilibrium point using order-preserving monotonic systems theory. Furthermore, we establish the system’s identifiability, ensuring unique parameter estimation from observed trajectories. A case study of Stockholm, Sweden, showcases the model’s ability to accurately characterize cycling adoption dynamics, highlighting its potential for informing sustainable transportation strategies.