Socioecological determinants of dog ownership in Mara region, Tanzania

Understanding domestic dog population dynamics is critical for rabies control, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where domestic dogs are the primary virus reservoir. This study investigates demographic and environmental determinants of dog ownership in Tanzania's Mara region, a rabies-endemic area with ecologically diverse landscapes. Using a cross-sectional household survey (n = 27,400 households), we employed mixed-effects models to assess predictors of dog ownership, dog counts, and Human-to-Dog Ratios (HDRs). Overall, 12,975 households (47 %) owned dogs, with a mean of 2.2 dogs per dog-owning household. Logistic regression revealed key predictors of ownership: urban households had reduced odds of dog ownership (OR = 0.311, CI: 0.132-0.734, while ownership likelihood increased with larger household size (adults: OR = 1.151, CI: 1.134-1.169; children: OR = 1.160, CI: 1.140-1.180), and crop (OR = 1.502, 95 % CI: 1.384-1.630), shrub (OR = 1.387, 95 % CI: 1.269-1.515), or tree land cover (OR = 1.708, 95 % CI: 1.260-2.314) compared to built areas. However, among dog-owning households, variables had minimal practical impact on dog counts with most households (85.6 %) owning 1-3 dogs regardless of household size, location, or land cover. Urban districts exhibited significantly higher HDRs (18.3:1 vs. rural 7.1:1), further influenced by land cover (tree: 5.1:1 vs. built: 8.7:1). These findings highlight a critical divergence: while contextual factors strongly predict dog ownership, they do not meaningfully influence the number of dogs owned. Consequently, effective vaccination programmes require strategies tailored to local dog density and ownership patterns.