How does digital transformation affect banks' systemic risk? Evidence from China

Purpose The impact of digital transformation on banks' systemic risk merits thorough investigation. Design/methodology/approach This study examines the influence of digital transformation on banks' systemic risk based on the fixed effect model with quarterly unbalanced panel data on 36 listed commercial banks in China from 2011 to 2020. Findings Results show that digital transformation has a negative impact on banks' systemic risk by reducing both bank-specific tail risk and systemic linkage to extreme market shocks. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that digital transformation can significantly reduce systemic risk in national commercial banks relative to regional commercial banks, mediated through lowered management costs. Finally, this study finds an asymmetric relationship between digital transformation and banks' systemic risk. Particularly, a desirable level of digital transformation can reduce systemic risk, while excessive digital transformation may exacerbate it. Originality/value These findings provide valuable guidance for promoting digital transformation for banks and mitigating systemic risk from digitalization.