Potential distribution and susceptibility of <scp> <i>Coffea arabica</i> </scp> L. to climate change impacts

Societal Impact Statement Ecological niche models (ENMs) are vital for understanding the impact of historical factors on ecosystems and predicting future climate change scenarios. These models help assess how environmental shifts affect agricultural species like coffee, which supports millions of people globally. By integrating global climate data with local knowledge, ENMs inform adaptive strategies for sustainable coffee cultivation. Our research aims to provide insights for managing coffee plantations, supporting rural economies, preserving agricultural traditions, and ensuring food security in the face of climate change. This knowledge is key for maintaining specialized coffee markets and mitigating future risks. Summary Climate change is a growing threat to global coffee production, yet its potential impacts at a global scale remain poorly quantified. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of how projected climate scenarios influence the environmental suitability for Coffea arabica cultivation worldwide. We applied ecological niche modeling using a consensus approach based on MaxEnt and Niche Analyst, informed by occurrence data for C. arabica . Environmental suitability was projected for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2‐4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5‐8.5 (high emissions). The results reveal substantial declines in climatic suitability across major coffee‐growing regions, particularly in the Americas. The most severe losses are projected under SSP5‐8.5 between 2061 and 2080, with Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, Brazil, and Colombia identified as especially vulnerable. Even under SSP2‐4.5, notable reductions are observed. Conversely, certain areas in Eastern Africa and Asia appear likely to retain or improve their suitability, indicating a potential global redistribution of coffee cultivation. These findings highlight the urgent need for regionally tailored adaptation strategies, the conservation of genetic diversity, the protection of key ecosystems, and enhanced research in C. arabica 's center of origin, particularly Ethiopia and Kenya. Ecological niche models provide essential insights to inform targeted mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change.