Assessing Strategic GIS Perceptions in Waste Management Planning: A Readiness Model from South Africa’s Vhembe District

Municipal solid waste management (MSWM) in low-capacity urban contexts is frequently constrained by fragmented governance, limited institutional readiness, and premature implementation of digital technologies. This study investigates how internal operational capacity, external factors, and Geographic Information System (GIS) integration interact sequentially to influence waste governance outcomes in South Africa’s Vhembe District. Using survey data from 399 municipal actors and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), the findings indicate that internal capacity encompassing staffing sufficiency, financial coordination, and service regularity is the most significant determinant of operational performance (β = 0.432, p < 0.001). This improvement in operations subsequently enhances strategic service effectiveness (β = 0.267, p < 0.001). GIS does not directly improve daily waste operations but contributes significantly to long-term planning outcomes, such as route optimization and infrastructure siting (β = 0.130, p = 0.017). External factors, particularly community participation, exhibit limited standalone influence, becoming effective only when foundational systems are stabilized. These insights inform the Municipal Readiness Model for Digital Waste Governance (MRM-DWG), a three-stage framework that aligns interventions with institutional maturity: (1) internal operational readiness, (2) strategic digital integration, and (3) participatory and external engagement. The MRM-DWG advances a sequencing logic rooted in absorptive capacity theory, offering a context-sensitive governance tool applicable to similarly constrained municipalities across the Global South.