Projecting the FIA’s GHG Emissions: A Forecast for the 2030 Sustainability Target

This study provides a data-driven evaluation of the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile’s (FIA) progress toward its 2030 net-zero emissions goal, based on publicly reported data from 2019 to 2023. Using SPSS-based regression analysis, we first identify business travel emissions and the number of championships, trophies, challenges, and cups as the most significant drivers of the FIA’s total carbon footprint, jointly explaining 99.3% of its variance. These drivers then inform a three-stage forecasting model developed in MATLAB to project future emissions. The results indicate a projected 18% increase in total emissions from 2024 to 2030. This upward trajectory stands in sharp contrast to the FIA’s target of a 50% reduction by 2030, revealing a significant implementation gap. Our analysis concludes that the FIA’s current path is insufficient to meet its ambitious climate targets, underscoring the urgent need for more decisive interventions, such as emissions-based event planning and AI-powered logistics optimization. The methodology offers a replicable framework for forecasting emissions in other data-constrained, high-emission sectors.