Historical and current spatiotemporal patterns of wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus spread
Outbreaks of vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) have become a major threat to polio eradication. However, variations in spatiotemporal spread have not been quantified. Here we analysed cVDPV2 cases and wild poliovirus type 1 sequences to uncover spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of poliovirus spread. Between 1 May 2016 and 29 September 2023, 3,120 cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases were reported across 75 outbreaks in 39 countries. Outbreaks had a median observed circulation of 202 (range 0-1,905) days and a median maximum distance of 231 (range 0-4,442) km. Wavefront velocity analysis of large outbreaks revealed a median velocity of spread of 2.3 (5th-95th percentile 0.7-9.2) km per day. International borders were associated with a slower velocity of spread (P < 0.001), in periods with high estimated population immunity. Phylogeographic analysis of 1,572 global wild poliovirus 1 sequences revealed that historic spread resembles recent cVDPV2 patterns and that international spread is largely sustained by unidirectional movement between neighbouring countries. Our findings offer insights for enhancing the geographical scope of vaccination response in the final phases of poliovirus eradication.
Authors
- Carlos A. Prete (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3907-423X)
- Christopher B. Uzzell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4204-3485)
- Ananda S Bandyopadhyay (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8395-2001)
- Arie Voorman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6242-7796)
- Nicholas C. Grassly (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6067-4507)
- Hil Lyons (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0325-006X)
- Corey M. Peak (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6150-5318)
- Manasi Majumdar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1413-1509)
- Isobel M. Blake (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3977-1318)
- Dimitra Klapsa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5709-5336)
- Darlan da Silva Cândido (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5080-3130)
- David Jorgensen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4982-3764)
- Simon Dellicour (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9558-1052)
- Kafayat Arowolo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7972-3284)
- Laura Cooper (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2942-3627)
- Javier Martín (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5326-7081)
Institutions
- European Medicines Agency (NL)
- Gates Foundation (US)
- Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE)
- Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Rega Institute for Medical Research (BE)
- Institute for Disease Modeling (US)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- KU Leuven (BE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Microbiology
- Published
- 2025-11-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-025-02174-6
- Primary Topic
- Viral Infections and Immunology Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00