Alessandro Saia discussion of: Information and conflict

Petrova and Tapsoba present a structured review of empirical research on how traditional and social media shape conflict dynamics, economic spillovers, and forecasting capacities. Their review organizes existing evidence around three key themes: the role of media in fuelling violence and intergroup tensions; the economic effects of media-driven expectations; and the emerging use of big data for early warning. By bringing together fragmented evidence into a coherent framework, the authors advance our understanding of how information flows can intensify or dampen conflict through incentives, persuasion, coordination, and expectation formation. Their discussion of economic spillovers beyond areas of direct violence highlights how media-driven expectation shocks can shape economic behaviour even in areas not directly affected by conflict. While the review brings clarity to what is known, it also highlights how much remains unexplored. Several pressing questions have received limited attention: Can harmful media effects be reversed, or are they largely persistent over time? What role can media play in reconciliation and the construction of civic identity after conflict? How do financial incentives shape the supply of disinformation? And how do digital platforms, together with social and political contexts, influence the way individuals absorb, react to, and amplify content?