Climate-Driven Habitat Shifts of Two Palm Squirrel Species (Sciuridae: Funambulus) and Projected Expansion of Their Range Overlap with Indian Agroecosystems

Ecosystems worldwide are being influenced by climate change in complex ways, leading to profound impacts on biodiversity. While these shifts may constrain the adaptive capacity of some species, they may simultaneously promote the expansion of others, including certain rodents. The <i>Funambulus pennantii</i> (five-striped northern palm squirrel) and <i>Funambulus palmarum</i> (three-striped palm squirrel) demonstrate exceptional adaptability across diverse habitats from rural plantations to densely populated urban areas. Their close association with humans ranges from causing crop damage to becoming urban nuisances, leading to their broad classification as agricultural pests. Hence, this study utilizes ensemble species distribution models to identify the climatic niches of these two species and delineate overlapping suitable habitats within agricultural zones in current and different future climate scenarios. The ensemble model identified 215,748 km² of suitable habitat for <i>F. pennantii</i> and 39,578 km² for <i>F. palmarum</i> under current climatic conditions in India. The future projections indicate habitat increases of about 20.6% for <i>F. pennantii</i> and 48.1% for <i>F. palmarum</i>. The agricultural overlap is also projected to rise by up to 45% and 48%, respectively, compared with present overlaps of 215,595 km² and 39,073 km². The most substantial expansions are projected in the Gangetic Plains, Central Highlands, and parts of the Western and Eastern Ghats and Deccan Plateau. These findings suggest that both species possess high resilience to environmental change and may pose increasing risks to agriculture in a warming climate. The study underscores the need for proactive, ecologically sustainable management strategies to mitigate potential human-squirrel interactions and agricultural losses, offering a foundation for targeted regional interventions.