The Impact of Digital Trade Innovation on Firms’ Carbon Intensity: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis of China’s Policy

As a new engine for promoting the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade, digital trade provides new opportunities for enterprises’ low-carbon transition. Based on samples of export industrial enterprises listed in China from 2010 to 2023, this paper uses the digital trade policy represented by the cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) comprehensive pilot zone as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to empirically analyze the policy effect of digital trade development on firms’ carbon emission intensity. This research finds that (1) digital trade policies represented by the pilot policy can significantly reduce firms’ carbon emission intensity and (2) the pilot policy can achieve the emission intensity reduction effect through dual paths of “internal innovation deepening” and “external environment optimization”. The internal innovation deepening refers to the green awareness formation and green production implementation of enterprises. External environment optimization refers to financial support resources for enterprises and institutional safeguards for innovation rights of enterprises. (3) Further analysis indicates that the policy effects are more pronounced in firms with higher risk preference, with larger scale, in heavily polluting and high-tech industries, and in the central and northeastern regions. Additionally, the policy demonstrates synergistic effects with the Belt and Road Initiative and exhibits significant spatial spillover effects, benefiting neighboring non-pilot areas.