Atmospheric Blocks Increase the Odds of Extreme Wildfire Danger at High Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract Recent years have seen severe wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere. This study statistically links atmospheric blocks to extreme fire weather () and observed fires (OF) across seasons from 1979 to 2020. Based on co‐location and odds ratio statistics, we find that a substantial part of co‐occurs with blocks. In areas where blocks occur regularly, blocks increase the odds of by a factor of 4–5, with up to a 30‐fold increase locally. The link between blocks and is stronger at latitudes north of 50N, but exhibits regional and seasonal variations. We also find a significant link between blocks and OF in the Arctic regions during summer. This study reveals new links between atmospheric blocks and wildfire danger.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2025-11-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl115117
Primary Topic
Fire effects on ecosystems
Type
article
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article

Atmospheric Blocks Increase the Odds of Extreme Wildfire Danger at High Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere

Daniel Steinfeld, M. Herrmann, Stefan Brönnimann, Olivia Martius et al.
Geophysical Research Letters
Fire effects on ecosystems
article

Atmospheric Blocks Increase the Odds of Extreme Wildfire Danger at High Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere

Daniel Steinfeld, M. Herrmann, Stefan Brönnimann, Olivia Martius, H. Weber
article en

Abstract

Abstract Recent years have seen severe wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere. This study statistically links atmospheric blocks to extreme fire weather () and observed fires (OF) across seasons from 1979 to 2020. Based on co‐location and odds ratio statistics, we find that a substantial part of co‐occurs with blocks. In areas where blocks occur regularly, blocks increase the odds of by a factor of 4–5, with up to a 30‐fold increase locally. The link between blocks and is stronger at latitudes north of 50N, but exhibits regional and seasonal variations. We also find a significant link between blocks and OF in the Arctic regions during summer. This study reveals new links between atmospheric blocks and wildfire danger.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 52(23)
University of Bern (CH), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH), Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss (CH), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DE), ETH Zurich (CH), Zurich University of Teacher Education (CH)
Openalex Percentile: Top 66%
Fire effects on ecosystems
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