Shifting the Sand? Emerging Dynamics of Sino-Russo Relations in Central Asia

Over the past two decades, Russia and China have maintained an operational partnership, often characterized as an “axis of convenience,” centered on promoting a non-Western regional order in Central Asia (CA). However, recent developments, including United States (US) withdrawal and China’s expanding regional posture, have accelerated shifts in this dynamic. Adopting a bottom-up approach grounded in empirical evidence, this study examines China’s increasing engagement with Central Asian states through the lens of Power Transition Theory (PTT). The paper argues that China’s incremental rise in CA is reshaping the dynamics of Sino-Russian relations in the region, challenging Moscow’s traditional monopoly across multiple domains. The findings suggest a narrowing asymmetry between Moscow and Beijing, with China emerging as a credible challenger to the status quo and increasingly attracting regional states to align with Chinese-led regional initiatives.