The Impact of Online Shopping on Retail Building Space and Energy Demand in the U.S.

Online shopping is widely believed to reduce demand for retail stores and presumably decrease energy consumption in the retail sector, yet this relationship has not been studied empirically. We address this gap by first developing a regression model that empirically links historical retail building space needs to in-store shopping time. The historical online shopping time is taken from the 2003–2023 American Time Use Survey, which is then extrapolated to 2030 under two scenarios: a slower growth scenario based on 2003–2023 trends, and a faster growth scenario based on 2015–2023, reflecting a more recent acceleration of online shopping. Future energy use in retail buildings is estimated by combining predicted building space demand with extrapolated trends in energy intensity. Monte Carlo analysis is used to quantify uncertainty. Results show that by 2030, retail building energy demand will decline by 6–12% under the slower growth scenario and by 11–20% under the faster growth scenario, relative to 2018. These changes correspond to reductions in total U.S. commercial building energy demand of 0.7–1.3% and 1.3–2.2%, respectively. While potential increases in warehouse space, delivery services, and residential energy use are not analyzed here, the findings have significant implications regarding e-commerce for retail space and urban energy demand.