Environmental Impacts of Synthetic Fuels

In 2024, synthetic fuels regained attention as potential low-emission alternatives for internal combustion engines (ICEs), particularly in sectors where electrification remains challenging.This paper compares the estimated CO 2 emission factors of fossil-based fuels and synthetic fuels blended with 20% bioethanol under standardized usage conditions.A key finding is that the emission factor of synthetic fuels is highly dependent on the carbon intensity of the electricity used to produce green hydrogen via electrolysis.Using the projected EU electricity mix for 2030, synthetic fuels show no clear advantage over fossil fuels.However, with a cleaner electricity mix expected by 2050, their emission factor becomes significantly lower.From an economic standpoint, the viability of synthetic fuel production largely depends on reducing green hydrogen costs of 1.50-2.00 per kg through technological advancements and large-scale deployment.This analysis offers a realistic perspective on when and how synthetic fuels could contribute to climate objectives and outlines the technical and economic conditions necessary for their environmental and market viability.