China’s urban vertical growth substantially influences global food security

Urban vertical growth has emerged as a crucial strategy for China. However, its potential impacts on cropland protection and global food security have not been thoroughly evaluated. This study compares the modes of urban vertical growth in China, the United States, Europe and other Asian countries, based on the definition of city boundaries. It further examines how China’s urban vertical growth can protect cropland resources and its impact on global food security under different scenarios. The results indicate that if China adopted the urban development scenarios of other regions, food production would decrease by 7.6–13.7% in 2020. This could potentially cause a reduction of 8.4–15.3% in the global grain trade volume, and the global prevalence of undernourishment would also increase. China’s urban vertical growth has effectively contributed to global food security and thereby supports the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger. Vertical growth of Chinese cities contributes more effectively to global food security than urban development in the United States, Europe, and other Asian countries, based on urban expansion simulations.