Evolution of trade-offs and synergies in ecosystem service values and visualization of driving factors-a case study of the middle reaches of the Yellow River

Ecosystem services (ES), as a link between human activities and natural ecosystems, are crucial for maintaining ecological balance and supporting economic development. Ecosystem Services Value (ESV) is an indicator used to quantify ecosystem services. Accurately estimating the dynamics of ESV and its influencing factors is significant for regional sustainable development. This paper constructs an ESV valuation model incorporating construction land based on the modified equivalence factor method. It also examines the dynamic evolution of land use and ESV in the study area, as well as the interactions and influencing factors of ESV, using methods such as land-use transition matrix, ESV trade-off and synergy analysis, and XGBoost-SHAP models. The results show that: (1) during the study period, the changes in the single dynamics of cultivated land and construction land in the middle reaches of the Yellow River were significant, at -2.953% and 1.897%, respectively. The overall land dynamic rate averaged 0.152%, peaking between 2005 and 2010. Land-use type conversion was mainly between cultivated land, forest, and grassland. (2) ESV in the middle reaches of the Yellow River gradually decreased, with a total reduction of 21.951%. Areas with lower and middle ESV values contracted, while the remaining levels expanded, showing a spatial distribution pattern of decreasing from northwest to southeast. (3) The degree and direction of interactions between various ecosystem services in the study area changed over the 24 years, with the extremes of trade-off and synergy increasing. The relationship between water supply services and other services was the most significant. (4) Nighttime light brightness was the primary factor affecting ESV changes in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Average slope, forest proportion, and annual average temperature had a positive impact on ESV, while nighttime light brightness, cultivated land proportion, population density, and average elevation had a negative impact. Other factors had minimal influence. The findings of this study provide important theoretical support for the formulation of targeted ecological protection measures, promoting the sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin.