Warming demands extensive tropical but minimal temperate management in plant-pollinator networks

Mitigating the deleterious effects of warming is critical to ensure the persistence of plant-pollinator systems. Previous research relying on single-species frameworks has highlighted the conservation implications of universal increases in extinction risk due to warming, yet effective management approaches that incorporate the role of complex species interaction networks remain poorly understood. Here, we integrate monthly temperature projections with region-specific thermal-performance parameters to simulate population dynamics in 11 plant-pollinator networks across tropical, temperate, and Mediterranean ecosystems. Our results show that tropical networks that are near their thermal limits face pronounced pollinator declines (~50%) but that multi-species management targeting keystone plants offsets these effects by boosting both pollinator abundance and evenness. In contrast, temperate networks remain below critical temperature thresholds, with minimal pollinator declines (~5%) and marginal gains from management. These findings highlight the importance of considering the environmental and ecological contexts when attempting to manage ecosystems under climate change. Tropical plant-pollinator networks face pronounced pollinator declines under future warming and therefore require greater management than temperate networks, according to simulations of regional population dynamics.