Individual-Tree Crown Width Prediction for Natural Mixed Forests in Northern China Using Deep Neural Network and Height Threshold Method

Crown width (CW) is a critical metric for characterizing tree-canopy dimensions; however, its direct measurement remains labor-intensive and is often impractical in inaccessible crowns. Consequently, CW is frequently derived from projections, which are susceptible to multiple sources of imprecision, including canopy density, crown irregularity, terrain heterogeneity, and the observer’s vantage point, especially in structurally complex natural forests. While deep neural network (DNN) models show substantial potential for CW prediction, their performance in heterogeneous forests remains uncertain. We developed DNN models integrated with a Height Threshold Method (HTM) to predict individual-tree CW in the natural mixed forests of Northern China, dominated by Larix principis-rupprechtii and Picea asperata. Our study further compared the relative importance of feature engineering versus model architectural complexity in predictive accuracy and identified the key ecological variables governing CW. The model performance was evaluated through the coefficient of determination (R2), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Field surveys of 34 representative sample plots produced 1884 individual-tree records. The main results were as follows: (1) all DNNs avoided overfitting, and were statistical stable under ten-fold cross-validation; (2) the optimized DNN3-2 model (tuned hidden layer count, neurons/hidden layer, L2 regularization, and dropout) achieved peak performance, explaining 69% of CW variance with residuals with stable variance and excellent coverage properties; (3) tree size, neighborhood competition, species identity, and site quality were the most important predictors; and (4) stand parameters calculated from competitive neighborhoods defined by the HTM, particularly mean stand crowding, Simpson’s index (1-D), and Shannon’s index (H′), significantly improved prediction accuracy. By integrating DNN with the HTM, our approach allows for accurate prediction of individual-tree CW in natural mixed forests of Northern China, dominated by Larix principis-rupprechtii and Picea asperata.