Modelling excess mortality from non-communicable diseases during wartime: application to the Gaza Strip, occupied Palestinian territories
To our knowledge this is the first attempt to project NCD mortality in a live war setting, demonstrating potential impacts on NCD burden, particularly due to cardiovascular causes. The model focusses only on a subset of NCDs and neglects the impact of the crisis on disease progression, thereby plausibly underestimating actual mortality. It could inform better humanitarian resource allocation and service planning but requires refinement and improved parameterisation.
Authors
- Zeina Jamaluddine (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2074-9329)
- Hanan Abukmail
- Takeru Igusa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3632-2867)
- Paul Spiegel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6158-6661)
- Francesco Checchi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9030-5382)
- Zhixi Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4360-2242)
- Sarah Aly (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5873-1576)
Institutions
- University of London (GB)
- Loma Linda University Medical Center (US)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Loma Linda University (US)
- Johns Hopkins Medicine (US)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Population Health Metrics
- Published
- 2025-11-26
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-025-00426-5
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Health and Conflict Studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.82
Funders
- Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office