The relationship between dyslexia, autism, and academic outcomes: longitudinal analysis of population-level education and health data

Dyslexia and autism are neurodevelopmental conditions known to influence educational experiences, yet their distinct impacts on academic outcomes remain underexplored in large-scale population studies. This study utilises longitudinal, population-level administrative data from Wales to examine the relationships between dyslexia and autism identification and educational attainment across all key educational stages in children born between 2002 and 2008 (<i>N</i> = 204,497). Using multilevel modelling, we assess the demographic, health, and socioeconomic predictors of dyslexia and autism identification and their associations with meeting national educational expectations. Our findings indicate that both dyslexia and autism are linked to lower academic attainment, with autism exhibiting a greater negative association. The results highlight disparities in identification based on gender, health service usage, deprivation levels, and birth season, suggesting potential biases in identification and support systems. These findings offer critical insights into current patterns of identification and attainment among neurodivergent learners in Wales and serve a valuable baseline for future research evaluating the impact of ongoing education reforms.