Flood Risk Assessment in the Greater Bay Area Based on Multidimensional Dynamic Data

Abstract. This study addresses the current situation of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a core economic development zone in China that is frequently threatened by flood disasters. We collected 13 types of indicator data and employed the Analytic Hierarchy Process-Entropy Weight (AHP-EW) combined weighting method to construct a multi-indicator risk assessment system encompassing four dimensions: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and adaptability. GIS spatial analysis technology was utilized to classify and delineate comprehensive risk levels. The results demonstrate that the regional risk distribution exhibits a typical pattern of "higher in central urban areas and lower in surrounding mountainous regions," with the central urban areas of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as Hong Kong, identified as high-risk zones. The southern part of Dongguan, Foshan, and Zhongshan were classified as medium-to-high risk areas, while Qingyuan and Shaoguan showed lower risk levels. The assessment results showed high consistency with historical disaster records from 2000 to 2023, which not only confirms the applicability of the model in rapidly urbanizing regions but also provides quantitative decision-making support for optimizing territorial space disaster prevention planning and urban resilience construction.