Spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation cover and land surface temperature in the North Gojjam sub-basin, Ethiopia

Abstract The Ethiopian Highlands, particularly the North Gojjam sub-basin of the Abay River Basin, have undergone substantial land cover changes over the past two decades, primarily driven by population pressure, agricultural expansion, and deforestation. These shifts have contributed to serious environmental and socioeconomic challenges, including soil degradation, biodiversity loss, and increased climate variability. The study presents a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of vegetation dynamics and their interactions with land surface temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET), and rainfall from 2000 to 2022. Leveraging MODIS satellite-derived datasets and integrating remote sensing with GIS techniques, we examined trends in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), LST, ET, and rainfall across the sub-basin. The findings reveal significant vegetation loss in areas experiencing intensive land use, accompanied by elevated LST and reduced ET. In contrast, areas with stable or increasing vegetation cover, often associated with afforestation efforts, exhibit moderated temperature patterns and enhanced ET. Strong correlations exist among NDVI, LST, and ET, emphasizing the pivotal role of vegetation in regulating local climate and hydrological processes. The study underscores the value of long-term satellite monitoring for elucidating the complex relationships between land management practices and climate variability. These insights highlight the urgent need for evidence-based land management and reforestation strategies to mitigate environmental degradation and strengthen ecological resilience. The results offer actionable guidance for policymakers and natural resource managers striving for sustainable development and climate adaptation in the Ethiopian Highlands.