An SSA-SARIMA-GSVR Hybrid Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis for O3-CPM Prediction

Ozone density at cold-point mesopause (O3-CPM) can provide information on long-term atmospheric trends. Compared to ground-level ozone, O3-CPM is not only adversely affected by chemical substances emitted from human activities but is also regulated by solar radiation. Therefore, an accurate prediction of O3-CPM is necessary. However, it is difficult for traditional forecasting methods to predict the main trends and seasonal characteristics of ozone time series while capturing the random components and noise of O3-CPM. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of O3-CPM, this paper proposes a hybrid SSA-SARIMA-GSVR model based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method, which combines the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA) and the Gray Wolf Algorithm Optimized Support Vector Regression Algorithm (GSVR). First, the O3-CPM sequence is decomposed using SSA, and the concept of reconstruction threshold (RT) is introduced to categorize the decomposed singular values into two classes. The categorized RT reconstructed sequences containing periodic features and major trends are fed into the SARIMA model for prediction, and the N-RT reconstructed sequences (original sequence N minus RT reconstructed sequence) containing stochastic components and nonlinear features are fed into the GSVR model for prediction. The final prediction results are obtained by superimposing the outputs of these two models. The results confirm that, compared to various commonly used time series forecasting models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Informer, SVR, SARIMA, GSVR, SSA-GSVR, and SSA-SARIMA models, the proposed SSA-SARIMA-GSVR hybrid prediction model has the lowest error evaluation metrics, enabling accurate and efficient prediction of the O3-CPM time series. Specifically, the proposed model achieved an RMSE of 0.26, MAE of 0.212, and R2 of 0.987 on the test set, outperforming the best baseline model (SARIMA) by 45.8%, 42.1%, and 3.1%, respectively.